Since 2023, the A-share market as a whole has shown a volatile trend, while the performance of the dividend strategy-related index is remarkable. Taking the performance of the dividend index in the representative index as an example, it has risen by 11% since 2023.Candylandnodepositbonuscodes.65%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 recorded 0 respectively in the same period.CandylandnodepositbonuscodesA range of .50% and-6.90%. (data sourceCandylandnodepositbonuscodes: Wind, interval 2023-1-1-2024-4-30)
Benjamin Graham's famous saying "dividend return is the most reliable part of a company's growth" is a better interpretation of the value of dividend strategy allocation. In fact, the rise in dividend index can be traced back to 2021. At that time, core assets weakened, and the dividend style started a steady rise. Before 2021, whenever there was a lack of mainline in the market, the dividend style actually had a period of investment opportunities. According to wind data, the annualized return of the CSI dividend index in the past decade is 9.84%, and that of the CSE dividend index in the past decade is 9.40%, significantly exceeding the annualized returns of 4.51% and 5.41% of the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index in the same period. (source: Wind, data range: April 30, 2014-2024.4.30)
With CSI dividend index (code: 000922.CSI) and CSI state-owned enterprise dividend index (code: 000824.CSI) as representatives, compared with the trend of some mainstream broad-based indexes in the past 10 years, we can also find that the related index "endurance" of dividend strategy is good. In the past year, the market performance significantly outperformed other listed wide-base indexes, forming an independent style.
Comparison between dividend index and some broad-based indexes in the past decade
In August 2023, the market risk appetite began to decrease significantly, and the reform of central state-owned enterprises continued until April 12, 2024. The State Council issued several opinions on strengthening supervision and preventing risks to promote the high-quality development of the capital market (abbreviated as the new "National Nine articles"). Among them, "strengthening the supervision of cash dividends of listed companies", "building a policy system to support 'long-term investment'," and "vigorously promoting medium-and long-term funds to enter the market" are all closely related to dividend-themed investment, and dividends are expected to usher in a strong counterattack. So, what are the characteristics of this round of dividend style?Candylandnodepositbonuscodes? Is the A-share dividend theme investment expected to benefit? How should investors handle it?
Within the Citic Prudential Fund, there has always been a research culture of seeking common ground while reserving differences, and fund managers display their strengths in the areas they are good at. At the company system level, we also strive to help fund managers' investment style not to drift. Of course, it is precisely because of this that the company freely grows a number of excellent "balanced value" fund managers with macro vision and good at asset allocation through internal training. In order to focus on your doubts about dividends, we invited four fund managers to discuss them this time, namely, Wu Hao and Wu Yijing, fund managers of the Department of Equity Investment; they are good at finding undervalued investment targets from the perspective of macroeconomic cycle and meso-industrial cycle, and looking for upward opportunities at the bottom of the cycle. Quantitative Investment Department fund managers Ti Yuntao, HAN YILING (Han Yiling), they adhere to the concept of value investment, using the "quantitative + active" investment framework, through the establishment of multi-factor model, mining reasonable valuation, steady growth of high-quality stocks. This time, they will talk about the dividend investment in the current market style from the perspective of active investment and quantitative investment. We have sorted out the following content for readers.
Wu Hao: director and fund manager of Citic Prudential Fund Research Department
Representative products: Citic Prudential four Seasons Red mixture
Product performance: the growth rate of net worth in the last year is 2.51%, and the same kind ranks 5Accord 399.
Wu Yijing: fund manager
Representative products: Citic Prudential Deep value mix (LOF)
Product performance: the last year's net worth growth rate of 9.22%, ranking in the top 1% of the same category (20amp 3053)
Ti Yuntao: director of quantitative Investment Department and Fund Manager
Representative products: selected bonuses of CITIC Prudential
Product performance: the most recent year's net worth growth rate of 2.00%, ranking in the top 2% of the same category (68amp 3053)
HAN YILING (Han Yiling): deputy Director of quantitative Investment Department and Fund Manager
Representative products: Citic Prudential State-owned Enterprise dividend Quantification Stock
Product launch time: 2024.3.22
A list of golden sentences:
1. The rise of dividend style is accompanied by two completely different points. First, in terms of mood, the mood of investors has been fully mobilized. Second, the strong support of the policy, to a large extent, "dividend investment" has become another strong pricing logic.
2. After the supply-side reform of the industry, high-quality central enterprises such as coal, petrochemical and operators have improved their profitability, repaired their balance sheets and raised the level of dividends, which has become the main line of valuation and repair under the dividend style.
3. The investment logic of dividend theme will be paid more attention by the market. But it is not "strengthening", but returning to the nature of investment.
4. The implementation of the new "National Nine articles" policy is intended to solve a series of problems accumulated in the capital market for a long time, and to further standardize and guide the dividends and buybacks of listed companies to make investors' expectations of dividend behavior more clear. it is more conducive to the financial market to finally play the pricing function.
5. The new "National Nine articles" will further "support the superior and limit the inferior". The supervision of "dividend" increases the risk of "ST" of low dividend companies, increases the possibility of delisting of poor performance stocks, and encourages listed companies to enhance investors' sense of achievement by increasing dividends.
6. The landing of the new regulations (the new "National Nine articles") is to change the market from "disorder" to "order" and from "volatility" to "fundamentals". The introduction of the new rules (the new "National Nine articles") is in the hope that the overall market will become stable and mature and have more pricing power.
7. We think that dividend investment can be in a period of more attention at present, and it is a part of the process of market change. The ultimate investment in the future is to be more valuable and fundamental.
8. under the condition of continuous and stable dividend and appropriate dividend yield, dividend assets are expected to become an important allocation tool for institutional investors, especially insurance institutional investors.
9. It will be vigilant to deal with the downward trend of dividend yield. If the difference between dividend yield and credit bond interest rate is small, it will be an important risk signal. At the same time, we will also pay attention to changes in the fundamentals and relative pricing of pro-cyclical and growth assets.
On the similarities and differences between the dividend style of this round and the past
The dual buff of emotion and Policy
Looking back on the performance of the dividend strategy, what are the characteristics of this round of dividend market starting from the moment when the market risk appetite began to decline sharply in August 2023?
Han Yiling, deputy director of Citic Prudential fund quantitative investment department and fund manager of Citic Prudential state-owned enterprise dividend quantitative stocks, said that the rise of dividend style is accompanied by two completely different points. First, in terms of mood, the mood of investors has been fully mobilized. Articles and short videos promoting dividend products in the market emerge one after another, completely raising the mood of dividend investment. Second, the strong support of the policy, to a large extent, the "dividend investment" has become similar to another strong pricing logic. Under the influence of these two factors, the dividend market of this round is fast and fierce, but it does not exceed expectations.
Wu Yijing, a fund manager with mixed deep values of Citic Prudential, added from the perspective of the industry. She said that the current dividend market may be different from the past, with high-quality central enterprises such as coal, petrochemical and operators as the core main line. on the one hand, it reflects that under the background of SASAC's "one profit and five rates" and the central enterprises' increasing market value assessment, central state-owned enterprises have made positive changes in strengthening corporate governance and increasing dividends. On the other hand, after the supply-side reform of the industry, these traditional industries have improved their profitability, repaired their balance sheets and raised the level of dividends, which has become the main line of valuation repair in this round of dividend style.
On the persistence of dividend strategy
Return to the nature of investment and focus on the cash flow expectation and stability of dividend assets themselves.
The dividend strategy of "fire out of the circle" has also made many investors begin to worry about the problem of congestion. After the release of the new "National Nine articles", the CSI dividend index rose sharply against the trend. I believe many investors are worried whether this means that the logic of dividend-themed investment is further strengthened by the market. Can this advantage last long in the future?
In this regard, Citic Prudential Fund quantitative Investment Director, Citic Prudential dividend selection fund manager Ti Yuntao said that the dividend theme investment logic will be further valued by the market. But it is not "strengthening", but returning to the nature of investment. From the point of view of the company's operation, cash dividend is one of the more direct signals of the company's situation to investors. The advantages of companies that can sustain high dividends in the future will also continue. Of course, the continuation of this advantage is not a continuous rise, but a spiral. In the long run, this advantage is likely to last.
Wu Yijing believes that the new "National Nine articles" has increased the supervision of dividends, which is conducive to the style of the dividend market, and this advantage may continue in the future, but it may further spread to other industries. for example, some industries and companies that have not been fully excavated in the past and will further enhance the level of dividends are also expected to usher in investment opportunities.
Wu Hao and Han Yiling believe that the implementation of the new "National Nine articles" policy is intended to solve a series of problems accumulated over a long period of time in the capital market, and further standardize and guide the dividends and buybacks of listed companies to make investors' expectations of dividend behavior clearer, which is more conducive to the final pricing function of the financial market. Allowing companies that have entered a mature stage to pay dividends is actually a means to guide investors to correctly price listed companies. The existence of this means is necessary for an increasingly mature market. And this development goal will last until 2035, even in the middle of this century. The new national nine articles have clear guidelines from the asset side, the investment side to the trading side of the financial market, which are intended to solve a series of problems accumulated in the capital market for a long time.
To sum up, it can be seen that the four fund managers all agree that the new "National Nine articles" will further "reinforce the advantages and limit the disadvantages". The supervision of "dividends" increases the "ST" risk of low dividend companies, increases the possibility of delisting of poor stocks, encourages listed companies to increase dividends and enhance the sense of investors, and whether the dividend strategy is long-term effective. The core lies in the cash flow expectation and stability of the dividend asset itself. Han Yiling added that many interpretations believe that the implementation of Guojiu's regulatory measures on cash dividends is an investment opportunity. However, as long as there are opportunities, they all coexist with challenges. In the past, listed companies with high dividends were generally stable and relatively strong in profitability. However, in the face of promoting dividend measures, some companies will fake dividends as a result of regulatory measures, so that there are more and more companies with high dividends in the market, and it is more and more difficult to tell the true from the false. Therefore, for the future investment strategy, we will further combine the fundamentals to select companies that really have the ability to pay dividends to invest.
As the value of VS grows, will the market style change?
To be sure, dividend assets have been bullish over the past three years, dominated by low-risk appetite, and more long-term incremental funds may be introduced into the capital markets as the new deal continues. So, will there be a shift in market risk appetite? Are dividend assets worth looking forward to?
In this regard, Han Yiling mentioned that the landing of the new rules is to change the market from "disorder" to "order" and from "volatility" to "fundamentals". The introduction of the new rules is in the hope that the overall market will become stable and mature and have more pricing power. Therefore, "dividend" investment is only a means, not the final result. We believe that dividend investment can be in a period of concern at present, and it is a part of the process of market change. The ultimate investment in the future is to be more value-oriented and fundamental.
Ti Yuntao believes that in the general environment of declining overall economic growth, dividend assets can provide long-term sustained and stable dividend returns most of the time, which widens the scissors difference between the social rate of return and the social rate of return, and investors' risk appetite will decline. in the case of sustained and stable dividends and appropriate dividend yields, dividend assets will become an important allocation tool for institutional investors, especially insurance institutional investors. Of course, although from a historical point of view, the overall volatility of dividend-themed stocks is smaller than that of growth-themed stocks, sometimes its volatility may be relatively large, and investors need to pay attention to investment risks in dividend investment.
After the release of the new "National Nine articles", on the question of whether the growth sector will usher in investment opportunities, Wu Yijing said that if the Federal Reserve enters an interest rate cut cycle or domestic liquidity is abundant in the future, the market style may be more inclined to growth. from an elastic point of view, the dividend strategy may not be as good as the growth style, and although dividend assets have accumulated some increases since the beginning of the year, they may inevitably face stock price fluctuations. But overall valuations are still low and attractive. At the same time, within the dividend assets, we will also pay attention to whether the pricing of all kinds of companies is reasonable, and achieve a certain rotation within the dividend assets.
Wu Hao also said that in the future, with the increase in the valuation of the high dividend sector, the dividend yield may be reduced, and we will remain vigilant against the downward trend of the dividend yield. If the difference between the dividend yield and the credit debt interest rate is small, it will be a more important risk signal. At the same time, we will also pay attention to changes in the fundamentals and relative pricing of pro-cyclical and growth assets.
Remarks: performance data source: fund quarterly report 2024, as of 2024.3.31, ranking data source: Haitong Securities Fund performance Evaluation report, ranking data as of: 2024.3.30, statement release time: 2024.4.1. Citic Prudential Deep value mix (LOF), CITIC Prudential dividend selected similar funds are strong stock hybrid, Citic Prudential four Seasons Red similar funds are partial stock hybrid. The past performance of the fund does not represent its future performance.
Citic Prudential Deep value mix (LOF) was established in 2010-07-30, the performance comparison is based on the Shanghai 180 index yield of * 80% + the CSI yield of * 20%. Historical performance / benchmark performance in the past five years: 2019-2023, 0.97%, 0.97%,-18.85%, 14.52%, 0.00%, 2.97%, 38.52%, 17.11%, 43.15%, 25.14%. Previous and current fund managers: Wu Yijing (20220713-present), Xia Mingyue (20190318-20230804), Zheng Wei (20150529-20190329), Tan Pengwan (20110908-20150529), Zhang Feng (20100730-20111028). The fund manager evaluates the risk grade of the fund as R3.
Fund manager Wu Yijing manages similar funds such as Citic Prudential Hongyuan.
Citic Prudential four Seasons Red was founded in 2006-04-29. The benchmark of performance comparison was changed from "FTSE China full An Index yield * 62.5% + China Securities Index yield * 32.5% + Financial Interbank Deposit rate * 5%" to "CSI 300 Index yield * 62.5% + CSB Composite Wealth (Gross value) Index yield * 37.5%" on June 11, 2022. Previous and current fund managers, Yue Aimin (2006-04-29 to 2008-11-10), Sun Zhihong (2006-05-11-22), Guan Huayu (2007-05-20 to 2010-05-25), Lu Zhigang (2010-05-25 to 2019-03-04), Xia Mingyue (2019-3-18 to 2023-02-13), Wu Hao (2019-01-31 so far). The risk rating of the fund by the fund manager is R3. Category A's recent five-year historical performance / benchmark performance: 2019-2023, 30.18%, 20.97%, 41.45%, 15.24%, 9.74%, 6.69%,-28.59%, 13.17%,-5.75%, 5.44%, and 5.44%, respectively.
Wu Hao currently manages similar funds such as CITIC Prudential New Blue Chip, CITIC Prudential prosperous Blue Chip, CITIC Prudential New opportunities, CITIC Prudential Longteng selection, CITIC Prudential Hongyuan mixture, CITIC Prudential Xinze return, CITIC Prudential Xinyue return.
Citic Prudential's new blue chip was founded on September 4, 2018, and the performance comparison benchmark is "CSI 300 Index yield * 40% + Hang Seng Index yield * 20% + CSI Index yield * 40%". Wu Hao served as a fund manager from the date of establishment of the fund. The risk rating of the fund by the fund manager is R3. Historical performance / benchmark performance: 2019-2023, 30.48%, 55.75%, 11.49%, 17.69%, 2.58%,-28.69%, 10.33%,-10.72%, 5.35%, respectively.
Citic Prudential Prosperity Blue Chip was established on June 4, 2008. The benchmark of performance comparison was changed from "Citic S & P 50 Index yield * 80% + China Composite Bond Index yield * 20%" to "80% × CSI 300 Index yield + 20% × CSI Index yield" on January 15, 2024. Previous and current fund managers, Yue Aimin (2008-06-04 to 2009-07-14), Zhang Feng (2008-06-06 to 2011-10-28), Zhang Guangcheng (2011-10-28 to 2015-04-30), Nie Wei (2015-04-30 to 2017-02-13), Wu Hao (since 2015-11-18). The risk rating of the fund by the fund manager is R3. Historical performance / benchmark performance: 2019-2023, 30.48%, 18.11%, 55.75%, 11.49%, 2.52%, 6.85%,-26.22%, 13.71%,-12.36%, 7.98%.
Citic Prudential New opportunities was founded in 2011-08-01, and its performance comparison is based on the CSI 300 Index yield of * 80% + the CSB Composite Index yield of * 20%. Previous and current fund managers, Liu Hao (2011-08-01 to 2012-09-29), Yang Jianbiao (2012-08-28 to 2015-05-21), Nie Wei (2014-09-15 to 2017-02-13), Wu Hao (2015-11-18), Wu Zhenhua (2023-07-05 to date). The risk rating of the fund by the fund manager is R3. Historical performance / benchmark performance: 2019-2020, 37.66% / 29.52%, 36.58%, 22.46%, 5.38%, 2.94%,-26.26%, 16.91%,-21.55%, 8.22%, respectively.
Citic Prudential Longteng Select was founded in 2021-03-30, and the performance comparison benchmark is CSI 300 Index yield * 60% + Hang Seng Index yield * 20% + China Bond Comprehensive Wealth (Gross value) Index yield * 20%. Wu Hao served as a fund manager from the date of establishment of the fund. The risk rating of the fund by the fund manager is R3. Historical performance / benchmark performance: 2021-03-30 to 2021-12-31 minute 5.44% Universe 3.95%. 2022-2023 mai 28.93% maul 15.33%,-15.59% mae 8.56%.
Citic Prudential Hongyuan Hybrid was established in 2021-8-31, the performance comparison benchmark is the CSI 800 Index yield * 60% + Hang Seng Index yield * 20% + China Bond Composite Wealth (Gross value) Index yield * 20%. Previous and current fund managers, Zhang Hong (2021-08-31-2023-09-11), Wu Yijing (2023-09-11), Wu Hao (2023-09-13). The risk rating of the fund by the fund manager is R3. Category A historical performance / benchmark performance, 20210831-20211231 mai 6.65% Universe 0.04% Traci 2022-2023 mae 15.25% Lexus 15.09%,-4.40% mae 7.94%. 2022.6.9 New C share, Historical performance / benchmark performance, 20220701-20221231 Magi 8.65% Grammer 9.04%. 2023 mai 4.96% mo mo 7.94%.
Citic Prudential Xinze return was established in 2017-06-27, and the performance comparison is based on the one-year bank time deposit interest rate (after tax) + 3%. Previous and current fund managers, Yang Xu (2017-06-27-2019-09-12), Wu Hao (2018-01-26 present), Sun Haozhong (2019-12-25 present). The risk rating of the fund by the fund manager is R3. Historical performance / benchmark performance, category A: 2019-2023, 15.41%, 4.50%, 28.61%, 4.51%, 8.09%, 4.61%,-2.84%, 4.60%,-0.60%, 4.60%, 4.60%, 4.61%,-2.84%,-0.60%, 4.60%. Category B: 2019-2023, 15.06%, 4.50%, 28.60%, 4.51%, 7.90%, 4.61%,-2.92%, 4.60%,-0.70%, 4.60%.
Citic Prudential Xinyue return was established in 2016-12-29, and the performance comparison is based on the CSB Composite (full Price) Index yield of * 70 per cent + CSI 300 Index yield of * 30 per cent. Previous and current fund managers, Yang Xu (2016-12-29-2019-09-12), Wu Hao (2019-08-27 present), Sun Haozhong (2019-12-25 present). The risk rating of the fund by the fund manager is R3. 2019-2023 Historical performance / benchmark performance, Category A: 23.13% Universe 11.14%, 26.02% Universe 8.04%, 7.96% Universe 0.20%,-3.50% Universe 6.33%,-0.32% Universe 1.99%. Category B, 23.04%, 11.14%, 25.80%, 8.04%, 7.89%, 0.20%,-3.62%, 6.33%,-0.46%, 1.99%
Citic Prudential dividend Select was established in 2019-12-25, and the performance comparison is based on the yield of China Securities dividend Index * 70% + the yield of High dividend Investment Index * 10% + the yield of China Composite Bond Index * 20%. Category A historical performance / benchmark performance: 2020-2022, 41.64%, 1.23%, 10.05%, 9.75%,-12.35%, 2.56%, 2023, 0.03%, 1.71% respectively. Category C historical performance / benchmark performance: 2020-2022, 41.08%, 1.23%, 9.62%, 9.75%,-12.71%, 2.56%, 2023:-0.43%, 1.71%. Ti Yuntao has been a fund manager since the establishment of the fund. The fund manager evaluates the risk level of the fund as R3.
Other similar funds currently managed by Ti Yuntao are:
Flexible allocation of mixed securities investment funds from CITIC Prudential to Rui, flexible allocation of mixed securities investment funds from CITIC Prudential to selection, and flexible allocation of hybrid securities investment funds from Citic Prudential Xinwang (LOF)
Citic Prudential to Rui was established on October 21, 2016, with a performance benchmark of 30% × CSI 300 Index yield + 70% × CSI Composite Bond Index yield. Historical performance / benchmark performance of 2019-2023 in the past 5 years: class A 17.66% scoop 13.70% 18.28% Accor 10.31% mae 6.38% Paget 2.34% mai 1.30% mai 4.50% gamma 1.17% Accord 0.23%. Class C 17.53% Universe 13.70% 18.16% 10.31% Magi 6.28% mai 1.40% Acme 4.50% 1.08% Acme 0.23%. Previous and current fund managers: Ti Yuntao (20161021-present) and Yang Lichun (20200114-present). The fund manager has rated the fund's risk rating as R3.
Citic Prudential was established on November 8, 2016, with a performance benchmark of 50% × CSI 300 Index yield + 50% × CSB Composite Bond Index yield. Historical performance / benchmark performance from 2019 to 2023 in the past 5 years: class A 10.99% qqq19.92% 17.30% Accord 15.20% Magi 6.66% Paget 0.30% mai 1.48% Acme 9.56% Jing 2.09% Acme 3.54%. Class C 10.90% Universe 19.92% Magi 17.18% Zachi 15.20% Jie 6.55% Zuo 0.30% mai Mei 1.57% Mae 9.56% Jing 1.99% Zui 3.54%.
Previous and current fund managers: Ti Yuntao (20161108-present) and Yang Lichun (20200114-present). The fund manager has a risk rating of R3.
Citic Prudential Xinwang return was established on June 19, 2015, based on the one-year bank time deposit interest rate (after tax) + 3%. Historical performance / benchmark performance of 2019-2023 in the past 5 years: class A 15.70% ticker 4.50% maxim 17.73% ash 4.51% meme 6.40% meme 4.50% mai 1.67% PG 4.60% Rhyme 1.47% Accord 4.51%. Class C 15.55% Accor 4.50% Magi 17.64% Zachi 4.51% Magi 6.28% mai 1.74% Category 4.60% majom 1.68% Candle 4.51%. Previous and current fund managers: Yang Xu (20150619-20161123), Ti Yuntao (20161123-present), Yang Lichun (20200114-present). The fund manager rated the risk of the fund as R3.
Citic Prudential state-owned enterprise dividend quantified stock, performance comparison benchmark: China Securities State-owned Enterprise dividend Index yield * 85% + China Bond Comprehensive Wealth (Gross value) Index yield * 10% + Hang Seng Index yield * 5%. Fund managers evaluate the risk rating of the fund as R3. Proposed fund manager: HAN YILING, Huang Zhi.
(source: periodic reports of the Fund)
Note: the fund manager does not make any recommendation to the mentioned sector / industry, does not represent any investment advice or recommendation, and does not represent the fund position information or trading direction. The above point of view is only the current point of view, does not represent the prediction of the future, does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it constitute the inevitable basis for future product investment decisions.
Risk Tips:
The point of view of this material is only the current point of view, does not represent the prediction of the future, does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it constitute the inevitable basis for investment decisions for Citic Prudential Fund products in the future. If it is no longer accurate or invalid due to changes in various factors after the release, Citic Prudential Fund shall not undertake the obligation to update. The above contents are not regarded as investment commitments, and the investment strategy, allocation industry, specific investment target and proportion of the fund will be adjusted within the scope of the contract according to the market conditions.
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