Newsletter summary
The pressure on palm oil arriving at Hong Kong in May increased, spot transactions picked up, and oil stocks rose steadily. Policies in Indonesia, the United States and other countries affect the global oil market, short-term supply easing is expected to remain volatile, medium-term downside space is limited.
Text of news flash
[the arrival pressure of domestic palm oil has increased, and spot transactions have picked up significantly]
Domestic palm oil arrival pressure increased in May, as the premium narrowed, the spot market ushered in a significant pick-up. According to the research report, the arrival of domestic soybeans to Hong Kong has also remained high, the shortage of raw materials has been alleviated, the operating rate of oil plants has remained high, demand has fallen steadily, and soybean oil stocks have risen steadily.
Abroad, Malaysia and Indonesia have entered the peak season for increasing production of palm oil. Affected by the fading of El Ni ñ o, the rainfall in Malaysia is higher than that in the same period in previous years, and the rainfall in Indonesia continues to be on the high side, restraining the growth of production.AaagamescryptoIndonesian shipments gradually returned to normal, Malaysian shipments continued to decline in May, and inventory pressure gradually accumulated. In April, the supply and demand situation in Malaysia turned loose, and MPOB has come to a conclusion. Indian traders immediately increased imports of vegetable oil, especially soybean oil and palm oil.
From a medium-and long-term point of view, the basic pattern of tightening of palm oil supply in 2024 has not been confirmed, and the market is still volatile. The policy support of biodiesel / hydrogenated vegetable oil from major oil-producing countries such as Indonesia, the United States and Brazil will continue to have an important impact on the global oil market in the future.
In the short term, the impact of seasonal palm oil production on the market in May will be further apparent, and the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to continue to ease. In April, Malaysia's inventory accumulation exceeded institutional expectations, and as palm oil regained its market competitiveness, follow-up market trading will pay more attention to the pace of production growth and the digestion of production growth pressure by market demand. In the short term, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate under the influence of loose supply; in the medium term, the downside of the market is generally limited. In addition, with the decline in the popularity of weather speculation in Brazil, the trading volume of soybean oil has been greatly reduced, and the overall operation is recommended to be light.
