Main points of investment
Review the historyXarcadeWhen the growth rate of social finance is rapidly declining, the performance of A shares is differentiated, and the core influencing factors are economy and profitability. In the history of social finance, the growth rate of new TTM in that month fell rapidly to negative for a total of 7 periods. During the observation period, A sharesXarcadeThe performance can be seen as follows: (1) A-share performance differentiation: three out of seven times the Shanghai Composite Index rose. (2) the core factors affecting the trend of A shares are economy and profitability: first, when the marginal growth rate of economic data and earnings rises, the Shanghai Composite Index rises, such as 2009.Xarcade.10-2011Xarcade.4. During the period 2020.12-2021.9 and 2023.12-2024.4, the profit growth rate or PMI of industrial enterprises rebounded, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose; otherwise, the index fell. Second, the impact of liquidity and valuation is relatively small.
At present, the downward growth rate of social finance does not change the strong trend of A-share shocks, which is mainly affected by economic repair and profit recovery. In retrospect, the current point of view: (1) Economic repair is expected to rise in the short term. First, in terms of economic structure, the growth rate of investment and consumption may stabilize and pick up, and it is difficult for export growth to decline rapidly. Second, policy, short-term growth related policies may continue, accelerate the introduction and landing: first of all, the Politburo meeting has been decided to rely on forward efforts to effectively implement the policies issued; second, the real estate relaxation policy exceeded expectations. (2) the high probability of profit is in the recovery cycle. First, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises is likely to continue to rise; second, the profit growth rate of A shares is also likely to be in the upward trend.
Continue the trend of strong shock in the short term, do more windows to open. (1) Molecular side: economic repair is expected to rise. First, under the relaxation of real estate exceeding expectations, sales may stabilize and pick up: the policy accelerates real estate destocking from two aspects of reducing supply and stimulating demand. Second, the growth rate of manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment continued to pick up in April. (2) liquidity: further easing may be made in the short term. First, domestic liquidity may be further relaxed in the short term. Second, funds in the stock market continue to improve:
With the substantial relaxation of real estate policy, foreign capital inflows may continue to be substantial in the short term, risk appetite may rise, and inflows of financing and new funds may rise in the short term. (3) risk appetite may increase in the short term. First, domestic policies boost market sentiment in the short term; second, the decline in geo-risk and rising expectations of overseas interest rate cuts increase global market risk appetite.
Looking back in history, credit declines are dominated by cyclical and partial growth. (1) in retrospect, when the growth rate of domestic social finance is declining rapidly, pro-cyclical and partial growth is dominant. First, in terms of style, both value and growth may be dominant: the stable value style is relatively dominant when profits are down, and the growth style is relatively dominant when profits are rising. Second, in a wide range of industries, cycle, consumption and some technological growth are likely to be dominant. (2) in history, when the growth rate of M2 in Japan fell, health care, information technology, public utilities, energy and finance were dominant. First, when Japan's M2 growth rate fell nine times, there were four times that the health care industry led the rise, and two times the information technology industry led the rise; second, with the exception of energy and finance, they were all less affected by the economic cycle.
Continue to focus on pro-cyclical, core assets and TMT in the short term. (1) short-term pro-cyclical and growth may be the direction of allocation:
First, according to historical experience, when credit falls, cycle, consumption and some technological growth are dominant; at present, it points to the upstream cycle, consumption and TMT under the expectation of economic repair. Second, the real estate over-expected relaxation brings the expectation of economic repair, and the related real estate and real estate industry chain, consumption and so on may be dominant. Third, real estate sales and economic recovery are expected to rise, foreign capital may continue to inflow, and core assets preferred by foreign investors, such as food and beverage, Dianxin, medicine and so on, may benefit. Fourth, market sentiment rises, when the index rises rapidly, science and technology growth, securities firms and so on may be on the strong side. (2) continue to pay attention in the short term:
First, electricity (batteries, photovoltaic, wind power), non-ferrous, chemical, food and beverage, tourism, medicine, home appliances, etc., benefiting from economic repair and foreign capital inflows; second, policy and industrial trends upward communications (satellite Internet, low-altitude economy), electronics (semiconductors), media (AI applications), computers (autopilot, data elements) Third, real estate, building materials, light industry, home appliances, securities firms, etc., have benefited from the loosening of real estate policies and rising risk appetite.
Risk hint: historical experience may not be applicable in the future, policy changes exceed expectations, and economic repair falls short of expectations.
