The dollar index in the foreign exchange market is clear this week.TexasholdempokervideogameFrom 105 in a weekTexasholdempokervideogame. 2948 points fell to 104.4974 points, a depreciation of 0.75%; the range was 104.0807-105.4779 points, with an amplitude of 1.34%. The depreciation effect of the US dollar led to the appreciation logic of other currencies, with the euro rising to US $1.08, the pound up to US $1.2700, the Swiss franc at 0.90 Swiss francs, the Japanese yen at Y155, the Canadian dollar at C $1.36, the Australian dollar at US $0.66 and the New Zealand dollar at US $0.60. China's RMB is also adjusted from the depreciation of the US dollar to appreciation, but the range and progress are uncertain, in which the onshore appreciation of 7.20-7.23 yuan is limited, closing 7.22 yuan, and the offshore span is 7.20-7.24 yuan, closing 7.23 yuan.
The foreign exchange market is in the turning stage, but the configuration of environment and conditions is too different, the support for the appreciation of the US dollar is strong, and the depreciation of the US dollar can only be played randomly with the help of technology. Therefore, a week of asset and commodity prices to cater to the depreciation of the dollar is a key strategy combination.
1. The benefit of American enterprises supports the rise of the stock index. The record high of the three major US stock indexes in one week is related to the excellent corporate financial results, and the advantage of the US economic environment is that it is difficult to exert resistance to the depreciation of the US dollar at present. Over the weekend, the Dow rose to 40003.59, the Nasdaq at 16685.97 and the S & P to 5303.27. The three major indexes of US stocks were: the Nasdaq rose 2.11% and the S & P rose 1.54%, both for the fourth consecutive week. The Dow rose 1.24% for the fifth week in a row. During this period, the Dow rose to an intraday high of 40051.05 on Thursday, breaking through the important psychological level of 40, 000 for the first time in history. The market capitalization and profits of US stocks show the advantages and strength of the US economy, and the new economic environment in which the Fed raises interest rates is a very supportive factor, but the market speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates is not only conducive to the rise of US stocks, but also lies in the control of the appreciation strategy of the US dollar.
2. The rise of the commodity price combination strategy is intended to devalue the US dollar. The most important thing of the week is the rise in metal commodities over the weekend, including $2400 for gold, $30 for silver and $11400 for copper, which is the norm for the depreciation logic of the US dollar. especially at a time when US stocks are rising aggressively, it is very clear that metal prices, along with the rising logic, are intended to curb the appreciation of the dollar and promote the depreciation of the dollar. In particular, the guidance of the copper premium in New York is even more important. A month ago, the United States and Britain announced new sanctions against Russia, mainly to restrict the trading of Russian aluminum, copper and nickel. The market expects future comprehensive sanctions risk premium pricing, coupled with macro-level buying momentum (inflation expectations, electrification, copper demand boom brought by AI, etc.), is expected to drive the overall commodity rally is inevitable. Then the forecast was verified, and commodity prices rose across the board. Among them, the price of copper on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) deviates greatly from that of other exchanges such as the London Metal Exchange (LME). When New York copper futures soared to an all-time high, they were trading at a premium of as much as $1200 a tonne, compared with a typical premium of just a few dollars. It is this sky-high premium that has disrupted participants from traders to quantitative hedge funds, with markets frantically searching for futures contracts whose metal delivery is about to expire, attracting a large number of investment funds bullish on copper. On the other hand, the metal commodities dominated by gold have a more developed impact on the price logic of the US dollar, which is precisely the environmental operation and price manipulation of the depreciation of the US dollar at a time when the US stock index is high and the economy is sound.
3. The expected purpose guidance of monetary policy is stronger than the actual parameters. Among them, the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates is the focus of the depreciation of the US dollar, which is the main guide of market sentiment, while the actual data support the Fed to raise interest rates. Even if the US inflation data drops, it is still far higher than the level defined by the Fed's monetary policy. The high inflation index parameter is the operational guide for raising interest rates. The expectation of market interest rate reduction is obviously to create momentum for the depreciation of the US dollar, and the US dollar has depreciated by 104 points. In particular, at present, the absolute majority of Fed officials say that they are biased towards the expectation of raising interest rates and have a relatively consistent view of maintaining high interest rates, which is the logic of US dollar monetary policy determined by the US economic foundation. after all, economic upgrading and corporate income increase are the basis for a high or higher level of US dollar interest rates, but it makes the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more rampant, and economic confidence is an important strength and courage for speculation and incitement. In particular, the expectation of the ECB to cut interest rates seems firm, which in turn makes sense for the Fed to cut interest rates. But is inflation bound to fall in Europe in the future? Perhaps the further rise in inflation in the future will be an important sign or trend to change the expectations of the ECB to cut interest rates. after all, the current rise in commodity prices has become a driver and stimulus to inflation, and what is more important lies in the background and logic of the combination of the dollar mechanism and the system. Monetary policy is the important factor and core guide of the current market and future trends.
At a time when the depreciation of the US dollar is expected to remain the focus of US monetary policy next week, speculation that interest rate cuts and the falling compatibility of US stocks will be the means to stimulate the depreciation of the US dollar, the coordination of other currencies with the rise of commodities will be a key period for the market to accompany the depreciation of the US dollar.
[risk Tip] according to the relevant regulations on foreign exchange management, the buying and selling of foreign exchange shall be carried out at the trading venues prescribed by banks and other countries. Whoever buys and sells foreign exchange privately, buys and sells foreign exchange in disguise, buys and sells foreign exchange or illegally introduces a relatively large amount of foreign exchange shall be imposed by the foreign exchange control agency according to law; if the case constitutes a crime, he shall be investigated for criminal responsibility according to law.
