News summary
The spot price of PTA rose to 5925 yuan/ton, and polyester staple fiber stabilized at 7425 yuan. PX supply is tight, PTA unit maintenance supports prices, and demand from polyester companies declines. The ethylene glycol market is short and worries are tiring. It is recommended to short EG more TA and buy TA09 to stop profits.
Newsletter text
[Prices rise in PTA market] Market observers noted that PTA spot prices climbed to 5925 yuan/ton, up compared with the previous perioddeadpoolpinball15 yuan. At the same time, the average basis for spot goods also rose, reaching 2409+5. In terms of PX prices, the latest data shows 1,027deadpoolpinball. 67 US dollars/ton, and the reference price for PTA processing interval is 411.16 yuan/ton.
The ethylene glycol market showed fluctuations. The spot price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within the range of 4485 to 4490 yuan, while the spot basis remained around 09-37 in the morning and fell in the afternoon to 09-39.
The price of polyester staple fiber remains stable. Currently, the spot price of polyester staple fiber remains stable at 7425 yuan. Despite the situation that positive benefits from raw materials are basically released, the impact of cost and market news is still maintaining the stability of market negotiations.
The supply situation and price trend of PX started in April, and the scale of maintenance on the PX supply side was large, resulting in the operating rate falling to a low point. After some domestic devices were restarted in May, the load rebounded. The load is expected to return to a high level in mid-June. The PX futures 05 contract is facing first delivery, but against the background of high inventories, the long positions are not willing to receive goods, resulting in the suppression of the 05 contract by short positions. Spot trading is more focused on June and July prices, and the market has begun to absorb negative expectations after supply rebounds.
Analysis of PTA market prospects Due to the frequent maintenance of PTA units from May to June, this provides support for TA basis differences and processing fees. The operating rate of polyester companies has declined due to the renovation of some furnaces. The two major foreign investment seats have different opinions on positions. PTA processing fees are at an upper-medium level, while polyester profits are on the verge of loss. There are certain contradictions in the distribution of upstream and downstream profits, which may provide support for shorting PTA processing fees.
The ethylene glycol market attitude is generally bearish. The current market generally holds a bearish attitude, mainly based on the current situation of high inventories, as well as the impact of the upcoming maintenance resumption and import rebound. Polyester demand is expected to be lower than April during the May to July period. As the main contract switches to the 09 contract, trading is more focused on market expectations. Shorts expect ethylene glycol to return to a cumulative state due to increased imports and weakening demand margins. Bulls expect that the possible accumulation of cash will not be as good as expected. Price trends will become an important factor.
Investment Strategy Suggestions Industry insiders suggest considering the strategy of multi-TA short EG, and suggest taking profit operations on the TA09 contract at an appropriate time.
