This article comes from: futures Daily
Since late April, the spot price of rapeseed oil has risen by about 800yuan / ton, and the main contract of rapeseed oil futures has risen by more than 1000 yuan / ton. Market participants said that rapeseed oil out of the upward trend, and strong performance in the oil plate, is the result of a combination of factors.
Wu Xiaojie, an oil analyst at Zhongzhou Futures, told Futures Daily that the rapeseed market was first triggered by the "late spring cold" weather of European rapeseed during flowering. Mainstream institutions estimate that rapeseed production in Europe will be reduced by 500000-1 million tons, which is smaller than the global output of 18 million-19 million tons, but some non-mainstream institutions think that the loss is much more than 1 million tons. ExceptCrashteamracingplaystation1As a result of weather problems in Europe, rapeseed cultivation in Australia has also encountered dry weather problems, which are mainly concentrated in western and southern Australia, which may lead to reduced crop yields. The Australian Meteorological Office predicts that rainfall will be below average in western and southern Australia until June, but there will be more rain after that. Local analysts predict that Australian rapeseed production could fall 5 per cent to 5.4 million tons this year.
"it is worth noting that rapeseed oil regained its upward trend and the spillover effects of related oils and oils. In terms of soybean oil, in May, heavy rainfall and persistent floods occurred in Rio Grande do Sul, the main soybean producing state in southern Brazil, affecting soybean harvesting and port traffic, driving up beans and soybean oil, and indirectly driving the rise in rapeseed oil. " Tao Zhaohui, an oil analyst at Hongye Futures, said that macroscopically, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has risen, which has strengthened the market's expectation of a rise in agricultural products.
In fact, at present, the focus of rapeseed oil trading has shifted to the yield of new rapeseed in 2024 in 2025, while there are signs of yield reduction in most of the major rapeseed producing areas in the world. Jiang Ying, an oil analyst at League of Nations Futures, said that the sown area of new rapeseed in Canada is expected to decrease by 27%.Crashteamracingplaystation1The output is expected to be reduced by 228000 tons. Due to the low rainfall and lack of soil moisture in the main producing areas of Canada, the sowing progress is slower than that of the same period last year, and the low rainfall in the next half month will still exist, which will have a certain impact on the emergence of rapeseed seedlings. In Europe, in addition to the decline in sown area, the low temperature and frost weather at full flowering at the end of April is expected to cause the loss of new rapeseed production. After the European rapeseed entered the harvest period in June, the actual yield loss needs to be further assessed. Northern and eastern Ukraine have also recently experienced severe frosts, which are expected to adversely affect rapeseed production. The dry weather in western Australia has also brought uncertainty to the growth of new rapeseed production. The influence of the weather in the main producing country injects liter water into the noodles of rape oil. USDA expects global rapeseed production to be 88.34 million tons in 2025, a slight decrease of 50, 000 tons, while new soybeans and palm oil are expected to increase production, and the low price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil and palm oil is quickly repaired.
On the domestic side, the reporter learned that the average monthly arrival of rapeseed imports from May to July is expected to remain at a high of 500000 tons, and domestic rapeseed oil consumption is weak, making it difficult to digest high supply. Rapeseed oil is still in storage, coastal oil factories and commercial inventories in East and South China are at a high level of 435600 tons, and the spot base difference of third-grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi has fallen to-200 yuan / ton, which is equal to the delivery cost. Jiang Ying said that the industry has relatively full expectations of the weak reality of domestic rapeseed oil, that the basis to continue to decline substantially is relatively limited, began to tend to bargain-seeking warehouse operation, rapeseed oil transactions, pick up the situation has improved.
Looking forward to the future, Jiang Ying suggested that the current favorable factors of rape oil have been priced by the market, the momentum of the continuous rise is insufficient, and the market is short-term or return to domestic "weak reality" transactions. However, in the context of this year's macro turn, superimposed industry fundamentals of the bullish drive, medium-term rapeseed oil has further upward space, it is recommended that investors adopt bargain-seeking long strategy.
"the price of rapeseed oil has increased to a certain extent, and the weather in Canada and Australia is the key factor to pay attention to in the future, especially whether the weather in Australia continues to deteriorate or improve, we need to closely follow the weather forecast. In the current rapeseed planting period, each producing area is easy to encounter some weather problems, and the price of rapeseed oil is easy to rise and difficult to fall. After mid-August, rapeseed harvested in Europe has increased the pressure on the supply of rapeseed in stages. " Wu Xiaojie said that from the perspective of global oil supply and demand, the overall supply and demand is generally balanced, and rapeseed oil has given a certain weather water rise, it is expected that the price of rapeseed oil is slightly more volatile, and it is a relatively safe way to do more after the pullback.
