News summary
this weekpacmanarcademachine, spot prices rebounded sharply during the pig season, and the main entities of the second breeding industry in the north drove the market. The national average price reaches 16pacmanarcademachine.45 yuan/kg, the peak during the year. As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, consumption boosts expectations. Supply pressure decreased in the fourth quarter and forward prices were optimistic. The cost of feed raw materials has increased and the number of piglets has exceeded the same period last year. We remain cautious about price highs. Pay attention to the upward shift in the focus of live pig prices in 2024 year-on-year, and consider laying out 11 contracts.
Newsletter text
[Spot prices rebounded significantly during the hog period] During this week, the hog market ushered in a strong rebound, with both spot and futures prices showing a clear upward trend. Secondary education entities in the northern region actively entered the market, causing prices to rise by 1.35 to 1.5 yuan/kg month-on-month this week. This price increase also had a positive impact on market sentiment in the southern region. The average price of live pigs nationwide rose by 1.05 yuan/kg. As of May 24, the average price reached 16.45 yuan/kg, setting a new high for the year.
Although the demand side is still tepid, the market expects the Dragon Boat Festival to drive consumption growth, and the short-term price recovery is mainly driven by the active entry of the second education entities. However, the entry of secondary education entities may cause a phased supply crunch, which may bring pressure on the market after January to February and create certain expected pressure on the 07 contract. At the same time, if the caution of the second education entities heats up after the rapid price rebound this year, it may cause insufficient price momentum to surge. The price high is expected to be lower than 2022, so investors can pay attention to the anti-hedging strategy of disk contracts.
[The number of Nengfan sows decreased slightly] Official data revealed that the number of Nengfan sows in April was 39.86 million, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous month, and the cumulative removal rate reached 9.2%. As time goes by, it is expected that the effect of reducing pig production capacity will gradually emerge. Combined with expectations for recovery on the demand side, supply pressure is expected to ease in the fourth quarter of this year, the peak demand season is approaching, and the forward price trend is relatively optimistic. Recently, the prices of feed raw materials corn and soybean meal have shown a strong trend, providing cost-side support for the rebound in pig prices.
Judging from the number of piglets born, the month-on-month growth in April continued to exceed the level of the same period last year. Therefore, the market should not be too optimistic about the high price of live pigs. Looking forward to 2024, the overall price of live pigs is expected to increase year-on-year. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of placing multiple orders on the 11 contract during the correction stage. At the same time, investors are advised to continue to carry out anti-hedging operations based on the entry rhythm of the second education entities and the seasonal consumption peak seasons.
