On Friday (May 24), A shares continued to adjust, and the Prev fell 0%.WildTigerTwirl.88% lost 3100 points. The defense industry plate opened low, 76 shares of the 80 stocks in the CSI closed down, Guanglian Airlines fell 9.59%, and Eloda, Situang Electronics, and Nortel Hi-Tech all fell more than 6%.
ETF, defense industry ETF (512810) floor price closed down 1.74%, the daily line received four consecutive overcast, lost all moving averages. The price of the ETF has fallen 3.33% this week, falling for two weeks in a row.
Low-altitude economy, military informationization, satellite navigation and other military topics were active against the market yesterday, and today they suddenly stalled collectively. What is the reason? According to the analysis of market participants, the influencing factors may come from two aspects:
First, the Asia-Pacific stock index fell today, the market mood is poor, A shares fell more than 3800 shares, preference for band short-term funds quickly fled the subject stock. Low-altitude economy, as a hot topic of the year, bears the brunt.WildTigerTwirl
Second, the major action in the southeast continues, local instability factors cause market concern, some profit funds are eager to be bagged for safety. As can be seen from the data below, today's heavy setbacks, such as Canton Airlines and Situang Electronics, have risen in the forefront in the past 60 days.
Figure: defense industry ETF (512810) index stocks up and down for 60 days TOP10
Reviewing the trend of the national defense industry plate this year, it fell sharply in January, opened the road of concussion upward in February, and has been stuck in the adjustment situation since mid-May. So, is the current stage a better opportunity for "low-suction" layout?
From the point of view of valuation, the defense industry plate has a better performance-to-price ratio. The data show that as of the close, the valuation of the CSI PE tracked by ETF (512810) was 54.49 times, at the 17.45 per cent quantile in the past decade, that is, below the more than 80 per cent time range in the past 10 years.
From a fundamental point of view, the defense industry is expected to hit bottom and rebound. In 2023, due to personnel adjustment, postponement of mid-term adjustment orders, supply chain price reduction and other factors, the income growth rate of the military industry slowed down and profits were under pressure. However, since March 2024, a number of military industrial groups have completed the appointment of new chairmen one after another. With the basic completion of personnel adjustment at the military industrial group level, including the positive catalysis of the formation of the structural layout of new services and arms, industry orders are expected to resume quickly.
In terms of policies, low-altitude economic policies have been introduced intensively. According to incomplete statistics, Beijing, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia and other provinces and cities have issued low-altitude economic development plans, low-altitude trillion-class track ready to start. The industrial chain of low-altitude economy is highly related to the aviation industry chain. National defense military industrial enterprises play an important supporting role in the construction of low-altitude economy, and low-altitude economy is expected to become an important increment of national defense military industry.
The latest research report of Zheshang Securities said that it is optimistic about ships, aircraft, low-altitude economy, information and other sub-areas. Ships benefit from the uplink of the civil ship cycle and breakthroughs in naval equipment; aircraft benefit from the release of military aircraft models and "new equipment + maintenance", and the growth rate is expected to go up; the industrial chain of large aircraft will benefit from batch production, speed-up and localization substitution; low-altitude economy is driven by policy support and technological development; military informatization benefits from the building of new strategic arms.
In terms of configuration tools, it is recommended to focus on the defense military industry ETF (512810). The fund tracks the CSI military industry index, and the constituent stocks fully cover the leading stocks in such subdivisions as "low-altitude economy + military industry informatization + China ship system + China Aviation system". It is a sharp weapon to invest in A-share defense military industry core assets.
It is particularly worth mentioning that as of the first quarter of 2024, the excess return of the net worth growth relative to the performance benchmark of the defense industry ETF (512810) since its establishment is as high as 19.87%!
Note: the annual performance of ETF from 2016 to 2023 is-7.33%,-12.27%,-28.34%, 25.39%, 77.34%, 25.08%,-25.52%, 9.09%, respectively. The returns of the performance benchmark (CSI) for the same period are-3.44%,-18.37%,-27.25%, 22.02%, 67.91%, 14.28%,-25.74%,-11.02%, respectively. The composition of the underlying index stocks is timely adjusted according to the rules of the index, and its historical performance does not predict the future performance of the index. The pictures and data of this article come from iFinD, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Warburg Fund. Risk Tip: the Defense Industry ETF passively tracks the CSI, which is based on December 31, 2004 and was released on December 26, 2013. The above stocks are the underlying index stocks and are only for display. The individual stocks are not described as any form of investment advice, nor do they represent the position information and trading trends of any fund under the manager. The risk level of the fund assessed by the fund manager is R3-medium risk, which is suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors. the appropriate matching opinions should be based on the sales organization. Any information that appears in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only and the investor is responsible for any discretionary investment behavior. In addition, any point of view, analysis and forecast in this article does not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, nor is it liable for direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the contents of this article. Fund investment is risky, the past performance of the fund does not represent its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by fund managers does not constitute a guarantee of fund performance, so fund investment should be cautious.
