Gao Tingting, pork market analyst at Zhuochuang Information
[introduction] in April, the pork price in Henan was adjusted at the same frequency as the national market. At present, the average price in Henan is slightly lower than that in the whole country, and the production capacity of pigs at the end of raw materials is constantly released.UsedvideopokermachinesforsaleDue to the negative impact of the negative impact of the slaughtering enterprises, the slaughtering volume continued to rise slowly in April, and the pork supply increased accordingly. Due to the weak follow-up of downstream demand and the supply growth rate greater than the demand growth rate, pork prices fell deadlocked during the month. There is still pressure on the supply side in May, while the demand side continues to rise slowly, and the average monthly price is expected to fall slightly from April.
From the price trend, pork prices fell mainly in April, from the monthly average price, showed an upward trend compared with the same month. As shown in figure 1, the price of white pork in Henan and the whole country fell mainly in April 2024, and the average price in Henan was slightly lower than that in the whole country. According to Zhuochuang information statistics, as of April 26, 2024, Kaifeng, Henan ProvinceUsedvideopokermachinesforsaleThe price of .5-3.5cm white pork was 19.0 yuan / kg, down 0.65 yuan / kg, or 3.31%, from 19.65 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month. The average monthly price was 19.26 yuan / kg, up 0.65 yuan / kg from March, or 3.50%, and 1.59 yuan / kg, or 9.0%, over the same period last year.
The price of pork in Henan showed a weak trend of stalemate in April, mainly due to the limited volume of terminal consumption, low-price purchases by downstream consignors and fierce competition in the region. Pork prices fall on the order increment stimulation is limited, but when pork prices rise, the terminal boycott sentiment is strong, the market transaction is slow. In order to maintain the market share and maintain fixed customers, slaughtering enterprises continue to lose money, and it is difficult to support the price of white slips.
Slaughtering enterprises still give priority to fresh sales and the terminal demand is slowly increasing.
In 2023, slaughtering enterprises are unanimously optimistic about the market in the second half of the year, so the split storage accounts for a relatively large proportion in the first half of the year. Henan TOP3 enterprises all had a certain proportion of frozen products in storage last year. At present, the frozen products stored last year face the problem of expiration and occupy a large amount of funds. The overall storage rate of frozen products in Henan is higher than the national average, so slaughtering enterprises are still strictly stuck in the proportion of storage in April, and white strips are still mainly sold fresh.
As shown in figure 2, the daily fresh sales of key sample slaughtering enterprises in Henan were 20200 in April 2024, with an average daily increase of 9.60% compared with March, and a daily average decline of 1.94% compared with the same period last year. According to the fresh sales data, fresh sales in Henan have increased significantly since the middle of this month. With the continuous digestion of refrigerator inventory, household purchases gradually resume. With the continuous rise in temperature and the increase in activities such as tourism and dinners, the demand for meat increases.
Fresh pork sales directly reflect the changes in terminal demand. The average daily fresh sales of Henan sample butcher enterprises in May 2023 was 21500, an increase of 900, or 4.37%, compared with 20600 in April. Drawing on the law of historical demand changes, Henan fresh pork with white strips is expected to increase by more than 4.0% in May this year. Taken together, there is an ample supply of pork with white strips.
April high decline stalemate go down, Henan white pork prices are expected to fall first and then rise in May, the monthly average price is slightly weaker than in April.
At present, the price of white notes is still mainly based on cost pricing, and the supply side has a greater say in pricing. Looking forward to May, during the May Day holiday, the terminal will mainly digest inventory, and the price of white pork will be stable and strong. Post-holiday demand inertia decline, Henan eating habits before the third-grade thin white stripes, fat white strips more and more difficult to carry goods. With the rising temperature, the decline in the price of fat pigs, the continuous release of the supply of medium and large pigs, the short-term supply of the market is still sufficient, on the whole, supply increases and demand decreases, prices may fall weakly in the first ten days. The theoretical output in May is still low, and the supply of standard pigs that can be fattened within the month is limited. If the second fattening machine enters the market in the next ten days, coupled with the continued increase in slaughtering capacity, it is expected that the price of standard pigs will rise, and white pork will rise at that time.
To sum up, the pressure on the supply side still exists in May, and although the demand side continues to increase, the expected increase in supply is higher than that in demand, so Zhuangchuang Information predicts that the price trend of Henan white pork may fall first and then rise in May.
