Up to nowFamilyfortunesMost of the listed companies in the United States have announced their latest quarterly resultsFamilyfortunesData show that US listed companies still maintain healthy growth in revenue and profits, with tech giants such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, META and Apple all beating market expectations; US stock valuations have also been repaired, and current Bloomberg valuation expectations for SPX in the coming year have fallen back to the average level of the past five years. But at the same time, the US PMI, consumer confidence, job market and other data are all weak, further confirming the marginal slowdown of the US economy, and the capital markets have also revised their over-optimistic expectations for the economy, and the expected number of interest rate cuts this year has rebounded to 1.Familyfortunes.8 times, Citic Prudential Fund Gu Fanding said that under the structure of "strong in the current period and weak in expectation", US stocks may still show a volatile trend in the short term.
On the other hand, although the European economy is still not completely out of trouble, the euro zone PMI has rebounded for four consecutive months this year and has returned to the rise and fall line. At the same time, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have taken a more positive attitude towards interest rate cuts than the Federal Reserve. European stock markets have performed well, and the stock markets of Britain and Germany have continued to hit record highs.
In terms of commodities, with the resumption of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, the impact of early geopolitical risks on commodity prices gradually receded, and commodity price shocks fell. At present, the negotiations have been concluded at this stage, from the current information, the views of the two parties to the conflict have not fully reached an agreement, and commodity prices may have fully reflected the impact of geo-risk fading.
Gu Fanding believes that as the market's expectations for economic and geographical factors return to "calm", the disorder of various assets may gradually improve since April; the US economy is in the process of slowing down, but it is less likely to continue to decline; US stocks have undergone performance correction or continued medium-and long-term shocks to rise, but US stocks may still have ups and downs in the short term. At the same time, the market's concern about geo-risk has weakened in stages, and the current prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold may have fully reflected the impact of geo-risk retreat, and commodity prices have returned to fundamentals. crude oil may fall while precious metals are relatively strong.
(note: the fund manager does not make any recommendation to the mentioned sector / industry, does not represent any investment advice or recommendation, and does not represent the fund position information or trading direction. )
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