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Institutions said that the recent rally in Container Index (European Line) futures is mainly driven by spot freight rates, and traders should be on guard against the risk of a pullback caused by overheated short-term sentiment.
On May 14, the main contract of Container Index (European Line) futures dived at the beginning of trading and is now down more than 3% after rising more than 3% at one point.
Yesterday, the price of 2406 of the main contract of the Container Index (European line) hit a new high, closing at 4008.Slotsmillion.9 points, up 14.64%. In the evening of the same day, the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center issued a notice saying that recently, the futures prices of the Container Index (European Line) have fluctuated greatly, and all relevant units are invited to do a good job in risk prevention, rational investment, and jointly maintain the smooth operation of the market.
For an extended period of time, the Container Index (European Line) futures have performed strongly in the past three months, constantly setting new record highs, and have risen nearly 40% from the beginning of May to yesterday's close.
Does the follow-up Container Index (European Line) Futures still have room for upside? In this regard, founder medium-term futures believe that the trend of the Container Index (European line) futures is still the relationship between supply and demand and the geographical situation. Specifically, shipments are expected to be good in June, and other liner companies are expected to follow suit, and even usher in a "four-game rise" in the second half of June. The main futures of the Consolidated Shipping Index (European line) may have further upward momentum.
However, some institutions have suggested that the recent rally in Container Index (European Line) futures is mainly driven by spot freight rates, and follow-up traders should be on guard against the risk of a pullback caused by short-term overheating.
New Century Futures believes that the freight index of European routes in the spot market has risen sharply, and the futures market has been guided by price increase news, cabin shortage news, and box shortage news of liner companies. Since May 9, various contracts have also shown a significant upward trend. To May 13, the closing price of the EC2406 contract reached another record high of 4008.9 points, and the negative basis between the SCFIS European freight index and the SCFIS European freight index widened to nearly 1500 points, equivalent to more than US $6300 / FEU in sea freight, which is already higher than the increase announced by liner companies in June, and investors are not advised to continue to chase higher.
Hengtai Futures said that in the context of maintaining a detour in the third quarter, traders can focus on the upside of 08 contracts. Under the condition that the fundamental situation has not changed, the short-term rise of European contracts is strong, but due to the volatility of futures prices and the difficulty of trading in the near future, traders are advised to be cautious and pay attention to the pace of operation and risk control.
