Copper:
Overnight copper prices fluctuated higher, LME rose 0.Casinoadrenalinenodepositbonus.87% to 10371 yuan / ton; comex copper high premium fell. On the macro level, CPI in the United States increased by 3% in April compared with the same period last year.Casinoadrenalinenodepositbonus.4%, unchanged, down slightly from the previous value of 3.5%; US core CPI in April fell to 3.6% year on year, in line with expectations, but lower than the previous value of 3.8%, the lowest in three years, month-on-month growth fell for the first time in six months, and the market raised expectations for the Fed's rate cut this year, but last night Fed officials said the data did not support the Fed's rate cut. On the domestic side, steady growth is still the tone, whether it is the issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds or local real estate stimulus policies continue to boost market sentiment. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic TC quotation dropped to a negative number, indicating the current tense situation in the copper concentrate market, which also deepened.CasinoadrenalinenodepositbonusWorried about the supply side, but in the second quarter in the crude copper and anode plate is more abundant, the actual output may be higher than expected. Internal and external macro sentiment continues to show a warm atmosphere, which plays a strong supporting role in copper prices. In addition, copper squeezing positions in COMEX surfaced, and the discussion on copper is more heated and attracted more financial attention, which is conducive to the development of copper prices. However, from the perspective of fundamentals, supply and demand under high copper prices have gradually moved towards negative feedback, and the deviation between expectations and reality continues, so the short-term performance of copper prices is still strong, but the differences are still large, and arbitrage investors continue to avoid risks under the continued pattern of weak inside and strong outside.
Nickel & stainless steel:
Overnight LME nickel rose 2.53 per cent, while Shanghai nickel rose 3.36 per cent. In terms of inventory, LME nickel inventory increased by 636 tons to 81630 tons yesterday, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts maintained 20798 tons. From the point of view of the discount, the LME0-March discount remained negative, while the imported nickel discount remained at-350 yuan / ton. On the news side, as one of the suppliers of nickel resources, the latest situation in New Caledonia has attracted market attention. According to Mysteel research, China's imports of nickel from Xinka accounted for 7% of total imports in 2023, and Xinka's primary nickel production and supply accounted for 6% of the total supply. at present, this incident has not directly had a substantial impact on nickel mining and nickel production in the area, and the follow-up impact still needs to be followed. In terms of stainless steel, the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel mine rose at the cost end, and the price of nickel and iron was on the strong side. This week, the total stock of stainless steel 89 warehouse caliber in the national mainstream market was 1.1098 million tons, up 0.17% from the previous week, and the inventory level increased slightly. In May, the output of stainless steel crude steel was 3.3403 million tons, an increase of 3.7% month-on-month. In terms of the new energy industry chain, the growth rate of intermediate imports accelerated, the three-way scheduling slowed down in May, and the demand for nickel sulfate may be weaker, but the cost side is still running strongly for the time being. Under the influence of the macro environment and Russian nickel events superimposed by contradictions in some parts of the industrial chain, nickel prices will still be high.
Alumina & electrolytic aluminum:
Overnight alumina shock is strong, overnight AO2406 closed at 3773 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.96%, positions increased by 3320 to 105500 hands. Shanghai aluminum shock is strong, overnight AL2406 closed at 20780 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.22%. Reduce the position by 1687 hands and 278700 hands. Spot aspect, SMM alumina comprehensive price continues to rise to 3719 yuan / ton. Spot aluminum ingots expanded to 70 yuan / ton discount, Foshan A00 quoted a discount of 70 yuan / ton, Wuxi A00 quoted discount 70 yuan / ton, downstream aluminum rod processing fees in Linyi, Henan Province, stable, Wuxi, Guangdong, Xinjiang, down 30-80 yuan / ton; aluminum rod 1A60 down 50 yuan / ton, 6Universe 8 series processing fees increased by 199 yuan / ton; aluminum alloy ADC12 and A380 stable, A356 and ZLD102/104 increased 200-250 yuan / ton. The positive space of alumina period is still there, but with the backlog of warehouses, the range of spot discount converges faster, and it is expected that the spot spot will catch up with the uplink and futures shock adjustment in the short term. Under the Southwest Electrolytic Aluminum resuming production and accelerating stock preparation demand, there is still upward power in the follow-up of the market. The high price of electrolytic aluminum suppresses the downstream purchasing enthusiasm and start-up performance, which forms a certain pressure on the rhythm of removing storage. However, there is little contradiction in the fundamentals, and the state has once again put forward policies such as stimulating consumption and lifting multi-land purchase restrictions and promoting the real estate market, and macro sentiment once again gives aluminum prices an upward boost.CasinoadrenalinenodepositbonusWe maintain that double aluminum is easy to rise, difficult to fall, and strong shock. Continue to pay attention to alumina positive sleeve space and variety price difference space.
Tin:
Indonesia's refined tin exports fell 57.63 per cent in April from a year earlier to 3079.46 tons, including 150.1 tons to China, Indonesia's trade ministry said on Thursday. The main force of Shanghai tin rose 0.58% to 275780 yuan / ton, and the tin futures warehouse receipt was 17260 tons, an increase of 187tons over the previous day. LME tin rose 1.87% to US $33810 / ton, while tin inventory decreased by 95 tons to 4920 tons. Spot market, for 2406, Yunxi Shengshui 200,500 yuan / ton, Yunzi discount 0500 yuan / ton, small brand discount 500,700 yuan / ton. In terms of price difference, 06-07 spread-1130 yuan / ton, 07-08 spread-790 yuan / ton, Shanghai-London ratio 8.16. The turnover of 5x16 Indonesian JFX is 175t, and that of 5Universe 15 Indonesian ICDX is 50t. In May, the total turnover of the two major exchanges was 1100 tons. The inventory in the domestic society is still accumulating, the inventory is tired to a very high level, but the storage speed has not eased, and the hidden inventory in the industrial chain is almost obvious. However, over the past month, due to the sharp slowdown in the recovery and removal of Indonesian exports, although the rise in overseas spot water is still high, it also shows that overseas consumption is not as good as previously expected. And the output data investigated by the domestic tripartite institutions are approaching the high levels in recent years, so we need to wait for the customs to announce the imported ore volume in April before it can be logically verified. In the short term, there are signs of microcosmic deterioration, and prices may fluctuate in a high and wide range.
Zinc:
As of Thursday, SMM Seven Zinc Ingot stocks totaled 215000 tons, an increase of 2100 tons over May 9 and 400 tons over May 13. The main force of zinc in Shanghai rose 0.04% to 23715 yuan / ton, and zinc futures warehouse receipts were 81364 tons, down 50 tons from the previous day. LME zinc fell 0.74 percent to US $2961.0 / ton, while zinc stocks increased by 8800 tons to 259675 tons. In the spot market, the discount of Shanghai Zinc to 2406 is around 80,100 yuan / ton, and the average price is 5-15 yuan / ton; the discount of Guangdong Zinc to Shanghai Zinc 2407 is 195,210 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that of Shanghai; the discount of Tianjin Zinc to 2406 is around 60,100 yuan / ton, and the price of Tianjin is 10 yuan / ton higher than that of Shanghai. In terms of price difference, 06-07 spread-105 yuan / ton, 07-08 spread-35 yuan / ton, Shanghai-Lun ratio 8.04. Domestic and foreign supply is gradually recovering, while demand overseas performance is sluggish, the latest domestic social finance data feedback real estate and infrastructure demand performance is poor. Zinc as a whole is in a surplus pattern, the upward power is insufficient, the upper pressure level pays attention to 24000 yuan / ton, and zinc is expected to show a higher probability of concussion in the short term.
Industrial silicon:
On the 16th, the industrial silicon shock was weak. The main force 2407 closed at 11725 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.8% within the day. The positions increased by 4431 lots to 108,700 lots. Spot prices continued to stabilize, with Baichuan's reference price of 13362 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the price range of #553 is stable at 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton, and the price range of #421 is stable at 13,550 - 14,050 yuan/ton. The lowest delivery price is 11750 yuan/ton for #421, and the spot premium is expanded to 50 yuan/ton. The silicon factory once again tried to increase the price after the holiday. The downstream receiving sentiment improved compared with the holiday but was relatively limited, and the overall tendency was higher than that before the holiday. As the 06 contract comes to an end, funds have an intention to leave the market as a safe haven, and downstream buying and not buying is dominated, which is expected to drive the futures price to rebound in the short term. However, there is still no bright spot in current demand. The Southwest region has once again shown its intention to resume production. There are continued weak expectations in the fundamentals, which makes it difficult to support the continued rise of the market. The possibility of a subsequent return to weak shocks is higher. It is recommended that investors manage their positions well and move positions and exchange monthly demand can be carried out in advance.
Lithium carbonate:
Yesterday, lithium carbonate futures 2407 contract rose 0.39% to approximately 104,000 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 750 yuan/ton to 107,000 yuan/ton, industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell by 1500 yuan/ton to 102,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide fell by 250 yuan/ton to 98,300 yuan/ton, the basis difference is about 3000/ton. In terms of warehouse receipts, warehouse receipts increased by 480 tons to 23783 tons yesterday. On the supply side, lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 14.7% month-on-month to 60,700 tons in May. At the same time, according to Chilean customs data, Chilean lithium carbonate exported approximately 22,900 tons to China in April, 42.27% month-on-month and 162.25% year-on-year. On the demand side, the total downstream demand in May will still increase slightly compared with that expected in April. However, prices in the early period were relatively low, and the downstream has replenished the warehouse. Coupled with the current increase in the ratio of customer supply, some cathode manufacturers have also weakened their willingness to purchase, and terminals are expected to be affected by the old-for-new policy incentives. Supply tends to be loose, and warehouse receipt inventories and social inventories continue to increase. After the rapid decline in the early stage, the space below may be limited. Although spot purchases have recovered, they have a weak acceptance of high-priced goods, and the overall driving force is not strong. The market outlook is dominated by shocks.
