Zhitong Financial APP learned that the Kerry Research Center said that by the end of 2023, the total value of TOP100 real estate enterprises was 29.Kingcomcandycrush.3 trillion yuan, down 13 percent from the end of 2022Kingcomcandycrush.9% of the total land storage area of the top 100 enterprise is 1.82 billion square meters, a decrease of 17.5% over the same period last year. The threshold value of the top 100 of the total land storage was 27.3 billion yuan, and the threshold of the top 100 of the total soil storage area was 841000 square meters, down 24.9% and 49.78% respectively from the same period last year, and the year-on-year decline was still large. From the point of view of the echelon, the threshold value of the top 100 has the largest decline, followed by the threshold of the top 50, while the threshold of the top 10 of the total land storage has only dropped by 8.09%, thus it can be seen that at present the land is still dominated by head enterprises.
The total land reserves of more than 30% of enterprises are less than 100 billion yuan.
Among the housing enterprises with a total land storage value of TOP100, only six housing enterprises have a total land storage value of more than one trillion yuan, which is the same as that at the end of 2022, and the enterprises with a total land storage value of more than one trillion yuan remain the same as Poly, Greenland, Vanke, Rongchuang, country Garden and Zhonghai; secondly, there is a decrease of one echelon of 5000-1 trillion yuan and eight enterprises of 3000-500 billion echelon.
Accordingly, the number of echelon enterprises with low total land storage value is increasing.KingcomcandycrushThe number of enterprises with a total value of 1000-300 billion yuan increased by 6, and the number of enterprises with a total value of less than 100 billion yuan increased by 3.
The coincidence between total land storage and top 10 sales is as high as 70%.
The total land storage top 100 and the top 100 sales have always maintained a high coincidence degree. By the end of 2023, the coincidence degree between the total land storage top 100 housing enterprises and the top 100 sales housing enterprises reached 70%, and the coincidence degree between the total land storage top 20 and the top 20 sales reached 75%. The coincidence degree of the top 10 housing enterprises also reached 70%. Among them, Poly, Vanke, China Shipping, China Resources, China Merchants, country Garden and Jindi are not only among the top 10 in the total land storage at the end of 2023, but also among the top 10 real estate enterprises in 2023.
According to the nature of the enterprise, the total land storage of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in the top 100 total land reserves reached 52%, while that of private enterprises accounted for 48%, which was flat at the end of 2022. Urban investment real estate enterprises were scattered and rarely entered the top 100.
The total amount of land reserves of the top 100 sales decreased by 17.8% compared with the same period last year.
Focusing on sales of the top 100 housing enterprises, affected by the continued tightening of corporate investment, the total land storage value of the top 100 housing enterprises has declined year after year, to only 26.4 trillion yuan at the end of 2023, down 17.8% from the same period last year and 39% from the peak.
According to the sales echelon, soil storage resources are still highly concentrated: the total value of the top 10 housing enterprises accounts for 35% of the total value of the top 100, an increase of 2% compared with the end of 2022; the total value of the top 11-20 housing enterprises accounts for 25%, down 1% from the same period last year. Overall, 60% of the land reserves of the top 100 housing enterprises are concentrated in the top 20 housing enterprises.
The average removal period of the total soil reserves of the top 100 sales is 4.89 years.
The property market remains in the doldrums in 2023, and the de-inventory pressure of housing enterprises continues to increase: the total land storage removal cycle of the top 100 housing enterprises reached a new high at the end of 2023, reaching 4.89 years. It is worth mentioning that at the end of 2023, the total land storage value of the top 100 sales has declined compared with the same period last year, which means that in the case of tighter investment and lower goods value, the degeneration cycle continues to lengthen but does not improve, and the current sales pressure is greater.
Down to the echelon:
The total land storage removal cycle of the top 10 housing enterprises is 3.48 years, which is basically the same as that at the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. The removal cycles of China Resources, China Merchants, Greentown and Jianfa are all controlled below 3 years. As a relatively active real estate enterprise in 2023, being able to maintain a removal cycle of less than 3 years reflects a strong sales ability.
Secondly, the elimination cycle of the top 11-20 and 21-30 housing enterprises has decreased compared with that at the end of 2022. These two echelon housing enterprises have not only controlled the acquisition of land, but also increased their efforts to de-capitalize.
On the contrary, the removal cycle of the top 31-50 rose slightly to 5.57 years, and that of the latter 50 housing enterprises increased to 9.7 years, and the pressure of elimination increased significantly.
More than 90% of the total land storage value of housing enterprises has declined. The central government enterprises sell more and take more.
The trend of low investment and caution in 2023 has not changed, and even the investment of central state-owned enterprises has declined further than in 2022. Only 6% of the top 100 real estate enterprises have increased their total land storage value compared with the same period last year. For example, the total land storage value of China Railway Construction and Huafa shares rose 11% and 10% at the end of 2023. On the other hand, the local storage value of the vast majority of enterprises showed a downward trend, of which enterprises with a decline of more than 20% accounted for 35%. Due to the suspension of investment in some private enterprises, the local storage value decreased for two consecutive years.
And from the perspective of the proportion of different decline in the value of enterprises, the enterprises with higher weights and larger land storage value have a greater decline, such as the total land storage value of enterprises with a drop of more than 20% is close to 50%. There is no lack of head real estate enterprises such as Yuexiu, Greentown, Longhu and so on.
In the current market environment, the more land reserves, the better, and the decline in the value of total land reserves is not entirely a slowdown in corporate investment.
Especially for the large-scale state-owned enterprises that have actively replenished high-quality land storage in the first and second lines in the past two years, it is normal to take more and sell more: such as China Resources Land, Poly Development, and China Real Estate, the total land storage value at the end of 2023 decreased by 5%, 8% and 7% compared with the same period last year, but the new goods value of the three enterprises in 2023 all exceeded 200 billion yuan, and their full-caliber sales were also more than 300 billion and were all located in the industry TOP5.
This also reflects the current predicament of enterprise investment, that is, only central state-owned enterprises and a small number of private enterprises are willing and able to acquire land.KingcomcandycrushThe more his business does not take the land, the more difficult it is to sell. For example, Rongxin, time and other enterprises, the total land storage scale is still more than 200 billion, but investment has long been suspended due to their own business crisis, and there is a "zombie inventory" in the land storage. For example, in Rongxin soil storage, some projects with a construction area of more than 300000 square meters in Hangzhou, Zhengzhou and Taiyuan have been difficult to remove in the past three years, and these "zombie stocks" accounted for nearly 40 per cent of their total land storage area by 2023.
Enterprises should still focus on "quality and light weight", optimize structural investment and focus on core cities and core plots.
The real estate industry has continued to build the bottom in the past two years. Under the sluggish sales, tight cash flow and frequent explosions of enterprises, great changes have taken place in the investment strategy of real estate enterprises than in the past. On the one hand, no one is interested in the third-and fourth-tier land, and many enterprises are focusing on the high-quality land plots of the core first-and second-tier cities; on the other hand, under the pressure of "survival", private enterprises are "invisible" in the land market, and central state-owned enterprises become the main force of land acquisition, while city investment carries out "backing" in various cities.
Under the new development stage and mode of the industry, real estate enterprises must realize that blindly paying attention to the total scale of land storage in the past is no longer in line with the current strategic positioning, and the more the total land storage, the better. Tactically, it is necessary to shift from the traditional "light weight" to "heavy quality and light weight".
In the future, the emphasis will be on precise positioning in land selection and strict control of project quality, rather than blindly pursuing the scale of land reserves. This means that optimizing the structure of land reserves and adjusting the allocation of land resources are the top priorities for the development of real estate enterprises. Real estate enterprises should still focus on first-tier and second-tier core cities with high risk resistance and high security, and focus on projects with high turnover, fast flow rate and sufficient profits to reduce investment in low-energy-level cities. This will also help enterprises better control risks, improve the efficiency of capital use, and promote the long-term stable development of enterprises.
In fact, the current market differentiation is becoming more and more intense. With favorable policies and expected repairs, the industry will adjust to a low level within a year or two and gradually usher in recovery and recovery. The layout of land in core cities can more quickly and effectively respond to market demand, improve project quality, enhance competitiveness, and maintain a leading position in market competition.
It is worth noting that judging from the cooling trend of land auctions in some hot cities in the first quarter, even the divisions and differences within core cities are still significant. Even the sub-optimal land sectors in core cities should be treated with caution while the market has not yet stabilized.
