Newsletter summary
Us manufacturing inflation is rising, technology commodity inflation is a long-term trend, although the US economy is weak, inflation debt risk limits the room for interest rate decline.MoneybackrouletteChinese enterprises are optimistic about local expansion, inventory cycle replenishment, improvement in consumption willingness; the market turns to fundamental returns, and is optimistic about finance, real estate chain, automobile and other industries. Risk hint: the global manufacturing recovery has been hampered, Sino-US relations have improved less than expected, and problems in the US real estate market.
Text of news flash
[U.S. manufacturing inflation is on the rise, which has a significant impact on the global market]
Manufacturing priceMoneybackrouletteThe rise clearly reflects the repair of the manufacturing sector, especially the rebound in prices. China, as an important part of the global manufacturing sector, has been significantly affected by this boost.
[us export prices are weak, import prices are strong, and inflation in technology goods is likely to continue]
Analysts believe that the weak prices of US exports and the strong trend of import prices may be maintained for a long time, and the deflation of technology products and commodity inflation are regarded as long-term phenomena.
[the hollowing out of US manufacturing has intensified, which has a far-reaching impact on the global economy]
The expansion of US manufacturing demand and the marginal deterioration of output indicate the intensification of manufacturing hollowing out, which may stimulate the US trade deficit in the short term, which in turn affects global demand.
[the US economy faces challenges, inflation and debt risks or limit the scope for long-term interest rates to fall]
The US economic performance has been weak, but inflation and debt risks may limit the room for long-end interest rates to fall further, and commercial banks' balance sheets continue to reflect concerns about the US housing market.
[Chinese enterprises may increase local capital expenditure and promote the strategy of globalization with Chinese characteristics]
Affected by the strategic adjustment of the global supply chain, Chinese enterprises may increase their capital expenditure at home and make use of the high efficiency of the industry to promote the globalization strategy with Chinese characteristics different from that of Japan.
[inventory cycle replenishment in China highlights a significant improvement in corporate economic expectations]
The characteristic that China's output exceeds consumption indicates the replenishment of the inventory cycle, and the reversal of the inventory cycle also shows that the economic expectations of enterprises have been significantly improved.
[residents' willingness to spend has improved, social retail has fallen short of expectations or deteriorated due to the marginal deterioration of fiscal expenditure]
The decrease of residents' deposits reflects the increase of residents' willingness to consume, while the total amount of social retail sales is lower than expected, which may more reflect the marginal deterioration of fiscal expenditure.
[the real estate sector that is out of the debt cycle may become a positive driver of manufacturing and consumption]
After leaving the debt cycle and turning to the industrial cycle, the real estate industry may turn into a positive driving force, and the stability of the real estate market will be conducive to consumption growth, thus driving the development of the manufacturing industry and opening a positive cycle of profit and consumption expansion in the manufacturing industry.
[the market shifts from transactional returns to fundamental returns, looking for industries with rising profits and valuations]
The market has emerged from the chaotic period of recovery trading and shifted from transactional returns to fundamental returns. Investors need to focus on industries where both earnings and valuations can rise.
[finance, automobile, chemical and other industries are bullish for a long time, while domestic demand pricing industry is optimistic in the medium term]
In terms of industry outlook, sectors such as finance, C-terminal real estate chain, automobile and lithium electricity, chemical industry, semiconductor equipment, shipping and shipbuilding, construction machinery and scenery going to sea are bullish for a long time, while the domestic demand pricing industry is also worthy of attention in the medium term.
[uncertainties about the global manufacturing recovery and improved Sino-US relations pose a risk hint]
Risks to be aware of include possible obstacles to the global manufacturing recovery, the possibility that improvements in Sino-US relations may not live up to expectations, and possible signs of unhealth in the US housing market.
