Source: futures Daily
Before the May Day holidayWwwbingoAfter more than a month of box shock, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through and rose in the first two trading days of the festival, and stood above 3100 points. The volume of transactions in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to increase, and the transaction volume rebounded to more than 1 trillion yuan. Among them, real estate, finance, brokerage and other sectors have led the rise, and then the growth of the plate relay, to inject momentum into the market. During the May Day holiday, Hong Kong stocks strengthened sharply, consolidating the momentum of this round of rise. After the holiday, the A-share index opened higher in an all-round way and is currently at a high level of more than half a year.
The meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on April 30 stressed that policies should "avoid tightening before and after loosening, and earnestly consolidate and strengthen the trend of economic recovery" and "rely on efforts to effectively implement the macro policies that have been identified." The meeting pointed out that the sustained recovery of the economy still faces many challenges, mainly due to the lack of effective demand, the greater pressure on enterprises, the hidden risks in key areas, and the lack of smooth domestic cycle. the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment have increased significantly.
In terms of fiscal policy, the meeting demanded that we should issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds as soon as possible, speed up the issuance and use of special bonds, maintain the necessary intensity of fiscal expenditure, and ensure that grass-roots "three guarantees" are spent in full and on time. In terms of monetary policy, the meeting made it clear that policy tools such as interest rates and deposit reserve ratio should be flexibly used to increase support to the real economy and reduce social comprehensive financing costs.
In terms of real estate policy, the meeting made new specific arrangements, proposing "overall research on policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize incremental housing."
In terms of debt reduction, the meeting stressed that it is necessary to ensure that high-risk provinces, cities and counties can not only truly reduce debt, but also develop steadily.
A few days ago, the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges officially issued 9 supporting business rules, including the rules for the examination and approval of Stock issuance and listing. Specifically divided into three categories, including 6 issuance and listing audit rules, 1 issue underwriting rules and 2 listed company supervision rules. It is generally believed by all parties in the market that the revision of the relevant systems and rules reflects the main line of strong supervision, risk prevention and promoting high-quality development, responds to the issues of concern to the market in a timely manner, and further clarifies the market expectation. Various institutional improvements are in line with the current stage of capital market development and the development of enterprises, and help to properly handle the balanced relationship between investment and financing, primary and secondary markets, imports and exports, and accelerate the formation of an omni-directional and three-dimensional regulatory rule system.
With the implementation of capital market system optimization measures, especially strengthening the selection of high-quality listed companies, unblocked delisting channels, strengthening the guidance of dividends, etc., the boosting effect on the market blue chip index is becoming more and more obvious. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission said that it will implement the large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in action plan, accelerate the promotion of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and other measures to land, and the macro policy orientation has become more consistent.
During the May Day holiday, domestic high-frequency data pointed to travel, of which the average daily passenger volume of highways was 215.18 million, an increase of 1% over the same period last year.Wwwbingo.4%; the average daily passenger volume of railways was 18.35 million, an increase of 1.4% over the same period last year; the average daily passenger volume of waterways increased by 6% over the same period last year; and the average daily passenger volume of civil aviation increased by 8.1% over the same period last year. Domestic tourism outbound trips totaled 295 million, an increase of 7.6 percent over the same period last year, while domestic tourists spent 166.89 billion yuan, up 12.7 percent over the same period last year. Commercial housing sales are still weak, with an average daily transaction area of 83000 square meters of new housing in 22 representative cities from May 1 to 5, down 6 per cent from a year earlier. The domestic manufacturing PMI fell slightly in April, but it is still above the 50% rise and fall line, while the sub-index reflects that insufficient domestic demand is still the main problem, and the export chain is relatively strong, forming a support for the manufacturing industry. In addition, the slow progress of local bond issuance is a drag on infrastructure and real estate chains, or a drag on demand in the construction industry. Overall, PMI indicators show that insufficient domestic demand is still the main problem, and the sub-item of new orders in the export chain remains at the 50% rise and fall line, which is relatively strong, providing support to the manufacturing industry.
From the perspective of the external environment, following US Treasury Secretary Yellen's visit to China, US Secretary of State Lincoln also visited China last week and reached a five-point consensus with China on the basis of a comprehensive exchange of views. At the same time, in the context of the recent sharp depreciation of the yen, the preference of foreign investors in the Asia-Pacific region for the A-share market has increased. On April 26th, Beixiang Capital bought a net 26 billion yuan a day, a record high. On April 29, northbound funds continued to actively buy, with a net inflow of more than 10 billion yuan in half a day, and the incremental capital level also supported the stock index to continue to rise.
Recently, market activity has rebounded significantly, and the average daily turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen has rebounded from a previous low of about 800 billion yuan to more than one trillion yuan. At present, the disclosure rates of listed companies' annual reports in 2023 and quarterly reports in 2024 are about 90% and 70% respectively, and the worries in the early market about the decline in corporate performance exceeding expectations were basically released in the first half of April. Judging from the total profit growth rate of different industries in the first quarter, the profit situation of the manufacturing industry and the raw material metal industry continued to rise, obviously picking up. In terms of valuation, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300PE multiple is currently around 11, which is still lower than the 10-year average. From a technical point of view, the market index has currently broken through the 200-day long-term moving average and is expected to have room to rise, with the next pressure near the 300-day moving average (around 3750 points).
Looking ahead, the pace of the rebound in economic fundamentals in the second quarter is likely to rise and fall, and economic data may be slightly lower than the high growth rate in the first quarter. Fiscal and monetary policy support is relatively sound, pay attention to the actual effect of equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in, real estate relaxation and other measures on domestic demand and economic circulation. At the same time, we need to pay attention to the impact of changes in the external environment on the exchange rate of the US dollar, yen and market risk preference. Because of its high-quality blue-chip attributes and comprehensive industry coverage, IF is more promising in the later stage. (author unit: Guangfa Futures)
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