Newsletter summary
At present, the market supply of natural rubber and cis-polybutadiene rubber is tight.StrategyfordoubledoublebonuspokerAffected by high prices of raw materials and a higher-than-expected decline in inventoryStrategyfordoubledoublebonuspokerThe price is short-term or on the strong side. Investors are advised to pay attention to the long hedging opportunities of RU, NR and BR, while being alert to the risks of increased production and downstream demand changes.
Text of news flash
[rubber demand driven by high operating rate of tire enterprises] recently, the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises remains high, while the operating rate of all-steel tire enterprises remains stable. Although the production scale of some enterprises has shrunk, the market expects a decline in the operating rate in the future.
The natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets are facing high raw material prices, supply shortages and a higher-than-expected decline in inventories. With the recovery of the macro environment, rubber prices are expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term.
The spot price and price difference information of natural rubber show that on May 20th, the RU base difference is-635 yuan / ton, and the price difference between natural rubber and mixed rubber is 910 yuan / ton. The import profit of Thai tobacco adhesive is-7460 yuan / ton, while the NR base difference is-138yuan / ton.
In terms of raw materials, the price of Thai tobacco slices is 82Strategyfordoubledoublebonuspoker.25 baht / kg, glue price is 78Strategyfordoubledoublebonuspoker.2 baht / kg, the price of cup gum is 57.85 baht / kg, and the price difference between glue and cup glue is 20.35 baht / kg.
In terms of operating rate, the operating rate of all-steel tire is 62.91%, and that of semi-steel tire is 76.55%.
Inventory data show that May 17, natural rubber social inventory of 1.355 million tons, Qingdao Port natural rubber inventory of 566403 tons, RU futures inventory of 217591 tons, NR futures inventory of 150796 tons.
The spot and price difference information of cis-polybutadiene rubber shows that the BR basis difference is-170yuan / ton on May 20th. The ex-factory price of butadiene Shanghai Petrochemical is 11200 yuan / ton, while the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 and Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 of cis-polybutadiene is 13400 yuan / ton.
The operating rate of Gaoshun polybutadiene rubber was 44.69% on May 17.
The inventory of cis-polybutadiene rubber traders is 2860 tons and that of enterprises is 2.245 tons.
In terms of market strategy, it is recommended to take a cautious position on RU and NR. As the prices of foreign raw materials continue to strengthen, domestic production areas still need time to resume large-scale cutting, domestic Tianjiao inventory exceeds expectations, and the supply side provides strong support to glue prices in the short term.
The BR market also recommends a cautious strategy, benefiting from a wide range of butadiene prices in the domestic market, strong outer disk prices, tight resources, and obvious support from the raw material side. Cis-polybutadiene rubber enterprises reduce the operating rate due to the decline in production profits, it is difficult to release supply in the short term, the market shows a tentative rise, inventory also dropped to the normal range.
However, there are potential risks in the market, including a substantial increase in domestic production, an increase in imports, the destocking of downstream tire enterprises and changes in operating rates, as well as changes in the start-up of cis-polybutadiene rubber plants.
